Facebook Insanity

I have been a part of Facebook since its inception.  Back when it was a platform for college students.  Now, however, Facebook has become a group of thieving, lying, sociopathic people who have no interest in security, privacy, or social good.  They are self-serving, evil, and with no interest in preserving whatever shred of dignity they had left after the congressional hearings.

As of now, Facebook is dead to me.

IPCC Climate Change Technical Summary

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/12/SR15_TS_High_Res.pdf

This paper is a curious representation of the credibility crisis that has infested mainstream science.  Contained within this technical summary is not one line of science that I could find.  There was no description of the methodology used to arrive at the results, no description of the measurements taken, no assessment of the biases inherent in the methodology or any assumptions made to arrive at the results, no procedure that would allow this report to be reproduced independently.

https://www.elsevier.com/connect/11-steps-to-structuring-a-science-paper-editors-will-take-seriously

It seems to me that they do not want this report to be reproduced, and that they merely wish to cry foul and harp on their particular view of the world in order to peddle influence and force people to adhere to their narrow view of what is happening.

This is not science.  This is political dogma wrapped in a scientific robe.  Congratulations, environmentalists, you have destroyed science.

A New Year of Power

I am writing this open letter in the hopes that this new year will be a year of rebirth for Christians, for those of us who truly believe and hold fast to the Word.  God has been teaching and convicting me of my complacency.  We, as Christians, are soft.  We are weak.  We do not rely on the power that stretched out the universe, even though He has made it available to us when we obey Him.  We let sin lie when we should be hunting it.  We let it live when we are called to gouge it out of our lives.  We choose not to obey, and as a result we weaken our faith and deny the power that God makes manifest.

As this world grow increasingly dark, it becomes ever more important that we cling to the light, that we follow and obey the Word with all of our passion and will.  Jesus calls us to be salt and light.  He calls us to be hallowed.  He desires that we should be set apart for Him, that we should be holy.  But it is more than a suggestion.  It is more than a request.  It is a command.  Over and over in the Bible, God says to us: "Be Holy as I am Holy," and "Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is perfect."

Therefore, dear brothers and sisters, I plead that you would take this command to heart in 2019.  Be holy.

Christians need to recognize the value of judging sin in our lives and in the lives of our brothers.  As Jesus says, "If your brother sins against you, go and tell him his fault, between you and him alone. If he listens to you, you have gained your brother."  This process must happen in the church if we are to get serious about being holy.  We cannot bury our heads in the sand and let our body perish.  If we want God's power and blessing in our lives, we must judge sin in our each other's lives with the love and grace fitting for our station.  "And let us consider how we may spur one another on toward love and good deeds, not forsaking meeting together, as some are in the habit of doing, but encouraging one another—and all the more as you see the Day approaching."  It specifically says 'spur' to imply that this process is not without pain, any less than excising a cancer from our physical bodies involves pain yet is necessary for life.  As it is written, "the wounds of a friend are sweeter than the kisses of an enemy."

But what about, "judge not lest ye be judged!" you ask?  Dear brother, we are not called to judge with our judgement.  We are called to judge with God's judgment, as it is written, "it is mine to avenge, says the LORD," and "judgment is mine."  Fortunately, for us, dear brother, we have God's word, and we can compare His word to our actions and the actions of our brothers.  Do not judge on your own discernment, judge with God's judgment.  Compare your brother's actions to God's word.  See where they differ and go and plead with your brother or sister to remove that sin from their life.

It is my prayer that those of us who are called by His name will seek to be holy and be open to the wounds of your friends and brothers.  Be willing to wound your friends, for their spiritual life depends on it!  "But if he does not listen, take one or two others along with you, that every charge may be established by the evidence of two or three witnesses."  And, likewise, "anyone who rejected the law of Moses died without mercy on the testimony of two or three witnesses.  How much more severely do you think someone deserves to be punished who has trampled the Son of God underfoot, who has treated as an unholy thing the blood of the covenant that sanctified them, and who has insulted the Spirit of grace?"

God is serious about our holiness!  Seek out your brother and convict them of sin.  God will not give us His power if we do not seek to be holy.

Mauldin on Trade Deficits

Mauldin has yet another excellent article regarding trade and trade deficits, as he says: "I have to confess something: I run a huge trade deficit. It’s not with China or Mexico, but with Amazon. I buy all sorts of goods from them and Jeff Bezos has yet to spend a penny with me. It’s just not fair."

The U.S trade deficit is just as useful.  It does two very good things, 1) it gives us lots of cheap stuff, and 2) sends lot of U.S. dollars around the world to help maintain our currency as the world's reserve currency.

A great many people do not realize what advantages you get by issuing the world's reserve currency (like being able to run 130% debt-to-GDP without completely destroying your economy... yet).

If we pursue aggressive protectionism, it will deeply incentivize other countries to not hold as many U.S. dollars in their reserve pools and thus erode the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

This trade war nonsense is the only reason I refused to vote for Trump, because I understand the nature of trade and the advantages of our country issuing the world reserve currency.

Hopefully, Trump does not destroy this advantage with his tomfoolery.

Mauldin's article is posted below, but without images, since my email does not load images.
If you want the chart and image version, go to Mauldin's site, here:
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-trade-deficit-isnt-the-boogeyman

Not Petya: Russia's Cyberattack on Ukraine

A fascinating article about how cyber attacks can cause collateral damage:
https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/

U.S. Public Pension Crisis

I apologize to any regular reader.  I have not written as much lately.  I have been busy, which is both good and bad.

Anyway, Mauldin has an article, titled "The Pension Train Has No Seatbelts" regarding the public pension crisis in the U.S. that is packed with a lot of useful and scary data.

Most of the states in the U.S. are underwater financially, and some of them are going to go belly up very soon (like Illinois, for example).  Even the state with the highest average income (Connecticut) is short by around 50% of their stated pension obligations.

This is not going to end well.

It is why I am completely convinced that biotechnology and life and health extension must happen.  If it doesn't, our civilization collapses.

So, people of my generation need to begin to get used to the idea of living and working for the next 300 years to try to fix this insane situation.  Fortunately, biotechnology will allow us to do that.  Companies like BioTime, Asterias, and AgeX are at the forefront of this, and have been for years now.

The biotechnology age of humanity is dawning, and I --for one-- look forward to being an elf.

General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)

I know we live in a globalized world, but it always amazes me that legislation passed in the EU causes me to received dozens of email regarding privacy policies. 

Not that I dislike the regard for privacy, but it is a lot of work.

Syria, Russia, and Chemical Weapons, Oh my!

So, the Syrians gassed more of their people again...

The last strike we did on them was little more than a hand slap.  They got their airfield up and running again in 2 days (or so).

In order to actually punish them for this attack, we would have to spend a lot more resources.  I honestly do not think that Syria is worth it.

We need to pursue a soft power diplomatic approach here.  I would recommend going after Russia via the EU.  I am quite certain the the Europeans don't want a chemical weapons arms race, so they would likely be willing to pay a higher gasoline/LNG/propane bills to sanction the Russian energy sector.  That would hit Russia and actually leave a mark.

Any further military strikes in Syria are too costly to be worth it.

Trail of Bits: An Easy Guide to Meltdown and Spectre

I found an excellent blog post by Trail of Bits that helps to explain some of the details of Meltdown and Spectre.

https://blog.trailofbits.com/2018/01/30/an-accessible-overview-of-meltdown-and-spectre-part-1/
It is especially useful when combined with a good explanation of branch prediction from Stack Overflow:
https://stackoverflow.com/a/11227902/2555197

I will link the other parts as they are published.

cryptologie.net - Best Crypto Posts of 2017

Saving this:
https://www.cryptologie.net/article/435/best-crypto-blog-posts-of-2017/

China and North Korea

I found a curious news article on the South China Morning Post that describes one Shi Yinhong international relations adviser to China's State Council's opinions regarding North Korea.

According to this article, Shi states, “North Korea is a time bomb. We can only delay the explosion, hoping that by delaying it, a time will come to remove the detonator."

This is the first Chinese official I have seen taking the possibility of war on the Korean peninsula seriously.

There was one other detail that I found interesting.  In Asian culture there is an idea of "face" that plays an enormous role in cultural interactions both within and between cultures.  This article states, "He also said Kim’s failure to meet Chinese envoy Song Tao during his trip to Pyongyang last month was a “humiliation” for China."  Meaning that Kim Jong Un effectively degraded the Chinese delegation and in doing so disrespected all of China.

Why Kim Jong Un would do this is beyond madness. China has been one of few allies the North Koreans have had, and disrespecting them in a such a manner is a sure way to ensure that China changes their stance on the North Koreans.

When this is combined with the reckless threats that Kim Jong Un has been making, these realities are finally starting to sink in for the Chinese.   The same nuclear weapons that Kim Jong Un threatens to use on the U.S. could very easily be pointed west towards China.  Perhaps that will change China's characteristically pacifistic view on North Korea.

A war of China and the U.S. against North Korea would be a very short affair, I suspect.  I also think it would be a good thing for nearly everyone except Kim Jong Un and his associates.  The U.S. cannot do a war in North Korea alone.

The Future of Spending and Investing Sardines

With Bitcoin(BTC) and its associated cadre of cryptocurrencies on the rise, I have no doubt that a panoply cryptocurrencies will become the dominant currency in the U.S. in time.  Long term, I see Bitcoin effectively becoming digital gold, and the other cryptocurrencies forming the panoply of trading currencies.  With this post, I will explain my logic on why I think Bitcoin will become a highly valued saving currency, and why I think Litecoin(LTC) and others will become spending currencies.

One of the more thoughtful points made by an economist/investor, Howard Marks, that I read was the idea of trading and investing sardines:

Two friends meet in the street, and Jim tells Sue he has some great sardines for sale.  The fish are pedigreed and pure-bred, with full papers and high IQs.  They were individually de-boned by hand and packed in the purest virgin olive oil.  And the label was painted by a world-renowned artist.

Sue says, “That sounds great.  I could use a tin.  How much are they?” and Jim tells her they’re $10,000.  Sue responds, “That’s crazy, who would eat $10,000 sardines?”  “Oh,” says Jim, “these aren’t eating sardines; these are trading sardines.”

I had been thinking about digital currencies like Bitcoin as investing sardines, and that may have been a mistake.  Their fans tell me they’re spending sardines, and while that may be the case, I think at the moment they’re being treated largely as trading sardines.  The question remains open as to whether Bitcoin is (a) a currency, (b) a payment mechanism, (c) an asset class, or (d) a medium for speculation.

I agree with Howard Mark's initial assessment.  Bitcoin is not an eating sardine.  It is an investing sardine.  Bitcoin, as an investing sardine, will be treated as a store of value, and will only be traded when the need arises to purchase physical assets.  At that time, Bitcoin will be traded for a more liquid cryptocurrency, which will then be spent purchasing the physical asset.

I base this on the fact that Bitcoin has a limited number of total Bitcoin that will ever be produced, 21 million; and on the fact that SegWit2x was abandoned.   The economics of supply and demand thus directly apply to it, and the US dollar price of Bitcoin will climb indefinitely, albeit at a much slower rate once mass adoption is complete, assuming stable dollar value.

Litecoin, however, is an eating sardine, for now, because of its relative availability.  In the future, LTC will likely run into an identity crisis, due to the earlier adoption of Bitcoin and the limited supply of Litecoin.   I will conjecture that because Litecoin is one of the more secure cryptocurrencies and because it is being adopted later than Bitcoin, the miners will vote to change the fundamental algorithm to increase the total supply at some point in the future.

This is exactly the opposite of what the consensus was on the recent Bitcoin SegWit2x, which was abandoned, implying that the consensus on Bitcoin seems to be settling around Bitcoin being a saving currency, not a spending currency.  Bitcoin is well on its way to being an investing sardine, while abandoning any ambitions of being an eating sardine.

You clearly see the beginning of this divergence of perception of the in the BTC price of a LTC.

Litecoin Charts - https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/litecoin/

The BTC price of LTC is declining as the perception of Litecoin being an eating sardine and Bitcoin being an investing sardine begins to take hold.  As an investing sardine, I would expect the trade volume of BTC to gradually drop off as the currency matures fully until people just hold Bitcoin, only trading it in large quantities into more liquid currencies -- like LTC and others.

As Litecoin matures though -- only ~64% of LTC are mined compared to close to ~78% of BTC -- the Litecoin will likely begin to look more like a Bitcoin junior or undergo a hard fork to become more liquid.  The chief difference between them will remain the initial perception gap, which will assign BTC a much higher value, simply by virtue of being adopted first and attaining the perception of an investing sardine before LTC.

So, if you are investing in cryptocurrencies to save, you should be investing in Bitcoin, because BTC will not have a maximum price in US dollars that it will stop at.  If the current workings of Bitcoin remain, it will become the digital gold of the future, only far more valuable than gold.

In the future, I can see entire companies being bought and sold for handfuls of Bitcoin.