Age of Aging

I received a new article from Patrick Cox of Mauldin Economics regarding the 2015 advancements in anti-aging technology that is slowly blossoming.

This article covers two primary drugs that have been around for a while but were never tested for the specific purpose of slowing down cellular aging.  These two drugs alone have the pontential -- at least based on current testing already completed -- to increase human lifespans by 10-15%.  It would be curious to do a statistical study of people who have taken the drug metformin for diabetes and see if they possess any measurable differences in cellular degeneration.

And I am sure that these drugs are only the vanguard of what may materialize as science advances to testing and marketing.  By some estimates, I am slated to live to 120 healthfully and 150 to 180 before I die.  That is curious to consider and something that I will keep chewing on.

There are plenty of dismal things that I have read and always keep in mind, but I want to share interesting or hopeful things also.

The article is here, or I have a copy of it transcribed below.  The online copy has all of the charts and images though, so hit that up first.



2015: The Year Anti-Aging Came of Age
JANUARY 8, 2016

Dear Reader,

Opinion polls show that the American mood right now is historically dismal. By lots of measures, things actually look pretty bleak. Real employment statistics are awful. Investment in new business is catastrophically low, which further hurts job growth prospects.

The core cause of these economic problems is growing government debt in most of the developed world. Debt crowds out private investment, reducing economic and job growth. And the largest single component of this debt is the growing costs associated with an increasingly older population.

Despite efforts by many in the media and government to play down these depressing stats, most of the public understand that economic growth is terrible and that the future looks grim unless things change. This means that things are, in fact, going to change.

This is a cycle that has been repeated over and over again. It’s, after all, another repetition of a long-established pattern.

Periodically, societies decide they can improve on the outcomes of distributed market forces and individual initiative. With the best of intentions, countries embark on grand-scale political experiments designed and implemented by “experts” to make everything better. With religious fervor, they replace the messy unplanned mechanisms of market forces with the latest form of central planning—which fails.

Inevitably, the pendulum swings back to allow more of the chaotic uncertainty that produces economic growth. Argentina and Venezuela are currently ending their own failed intellectual experiments in favor of the economic freedoms that empower decentralized problem solving.

For those of us living in the US, it’s easy to be pessimistic. But we shouldn’t be. The silver lining is much brighter than the cloud is dark. While economic growth has stagnated in much of the developed world, the rest of the globe has made breathtaking progress in the last few years. The following graph, from Our World in Data, dramatically describes the pace of global economic progress.

Most of the people alive today have dug their way out of poverty in only a few decades. This is more important than it may seem. Economic progress will accelerate now that the critical problems of survival have been solved for most of the world. Though the US economy is in the doldrums, the world economy is growing at an explosive rate and, as JFK said, “a rising tide lifts all boats.”

Polls, by the way, show that few people in the West are even aware of the tremendous and rapid improvements in economic growth and living standards that have taken place internationally. The technologies developed in the West over centuries are being adopted globally at an astonishing pace. Though we tend to focus on the failures, such as the Middle East, freedom and security are increasing elsewhere and driving economic growth.

The most obvious impact of an increasingly wealthier world is growing markets. And the most important of all markets is healthcare. As more people live longer due to modernization, the demand for drugs and other healthcare technologies increases.

I have little patience, by the way, with the Malthusian doomsayers who view this progress as a problem. Malthusians have always been wrong, and they are particularly wrong now. Wealth creates the resources needed to solve the big problems, and the world has never before seen such an explosion of wealth creation.

Here’s another graph from Our World in Data showing some of the rapid increases in life spans internationally. This progress goes hand in hand with economic well-being, as do lower birthrates. If you go to the source page, you can play with the interactive chart to see how different countries compare.

Already, newly modernized countries, especially in Asia, are becoming important healthcare markets as their populations increase in wealth and age. This is the biggest macroeconomic driver of our age. Healthcare is the largest and most countercyclical component of the Western economy. Now, healthcare is becoming the world’s central economic activity.

As this study in The Lancet points out, rapidly increasing life spans are accompanied by rapidly increasing rates of the diseases associated with aging. As Brian Kennedy of the Buck Institute says, this is “The Age Age.” Even The New York Times recognizes the problems (and therefore financial opportunities) that aging is creating.

Just as formerly undeveloped countries have learned technological lessons from the developed countries, they will also benefit from seeing how anti-aging technologies can solve the financial burdens created by aging. Organizations like the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation are actively working to help lessen the global burden of age-related disease by disseminating Western biotechnologies.

Meanwhile, back in the developed world, 2015 has been a watershed year for anti-aging science. One indicator of the change in thinking about aging is the FDA’s decision to allow the Metformin in Longevity Study (MILES) human trial. Frankly, I was amazed that this shift in thinking took place so rapidly. Given the often ridiculous obstacles the FDA has put in front of companies seeking permission to perform human trials, the immediate approval startled me.

I was similarly but pleasantly surprised that the FDA gave the go-ahead to Tony Wyss-Coray at Stanford University’s School of Medicine to test so-called vampire therapy as a treatment for Alzheimer’s in humans. We know that transfusions of young blood have incredible rejuvenating effects on old mice. Wyss-Coray opted not to officially test the technology for anti-aging effects, but that’s really the point. Alzheimer’s is an age-related disease, so reversal of AD will demonstrate reversal of apparent age. I believe there are better ways to accomplish the benefits of young-blood transfusion, but this FDA approval is important.

So history will record that 2015 is the year when the FDA accepted in theory that health could be improved and disease rates reduced by slowing the aging processes. This is a really big deal, and its impact will extend far beyond metformin.

Already, the metformin trial has attracted unusual media attention and accelerated public awareness about the potential of rapamycin. I’ve previously written about this naturally occurring antifungal that extends animal health spans by 10% to 15%. We’re a few years away from rapamycin anti-aging trials, but I think demand for an improved variant of rapamycin will be greater than many expect.

Currently, there is a lot of “barren skepticism,” to use Louis Pasteur’s words, about anti-aging therapeutics. Despite remarkable data that ought to be capable of converting the most stubborn Luddite, I still encounter a kind of statistical illiteracy when it comes to this field. The attitude that science is incapable of reversing and delaying the most unpleasant aspects of aging is not uncommon. This is simply not true, and it will become increasingly evident. Right now, rapamycin is being tested in dogs by the University of Washington Dog Ageing Project, which could lead to widespread use of the molecule to extend the health spans of pets. It is much easier to get approval for drugs for animal use, and the gerontologists studying rapamycin believe the compound will be effective in dogs and cats.

These scientists want to see it approved for pets, but not simply because they may be animal lovers. It will help humans learn, first hand, about the potential of anti-aging medicine. Moreover, I have no doubt that some people will use veterinary rapamycin.

Because rapamycin and metformin are naturally occurring molecules, or very similar analogs, this change in thinking will also benefit scientifically validated nutraceuticals. Some effective anti-aging nutrients are already available, such as vitamin D3 and nicotinamide riboside, but their effectiveness is not yet appreciated.

Beyond Anti-Aging Drugs

The emergence of effective anti-aging therapeutics is only one part of the paradigm shift taking place. Far more effective drugs are now in the works for a variety of lethal diseases. The list of diseases that will fall before this new generation of drugs includes cancers, fibrotic disorders (such as liver, kidney, and pulmonary diseases), as well as Alzheimer’s, antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections, and cardiovascular disease.

Fortunately, 2015 was not just a breakthrough year in terms of the scientific community’s view of the future of medicine. We saw a new high-water mark in terms of impatience with the unnecessary regulatory burdens that are slowing the delivery of revolutionary healthcare. Once, anger at the FDA was considered the domain of conspiracy theorists. Today, it’s nearly universal.

For example, The New York Times (typically a cheerleader for increased government power) piles on the regulators in this review of Dr. Vincent DeVita’s book, The Death of Cancer.

On the other side of the aisle is an even more significant sign of impending reform. Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz and Utah Senator Mike Lee have introduced a bill titled “Reciprocity Ensures Streamlined Use of Lifesaving Treatments Act (S. 2388), or the RESULT Act.” Essentially, this act would give Americans access to any drug, device, or biologic approved by scientifically advanced nations, including EU member countries, Israel, Australia, Canada, and Japan.

The RESULT Act would immediately and significantly accelerate the availability of new biotechnologies. It would eliminate the incredibly expensive repetition of clinical trials now required by the US government while reducing the cost of regulatory approval. This article by the Foundation for Economic Education titled "One Bill Could Massively Improve Access to Lifesaving Drugs" provides an overview of the bill and links to related materials.

Because the US deficit and debt are being driven primarily by age-related increases in healthcare costs, this bill may be the most important fiscal proposal on the table today. It would also, of course, eliminate much unnecessary human suffering and death.

New anti-aging and disease therapies have the potential to push health spans much closer to our Hayflick Limit, which is about 120 years. As confidence in anti-aging science has become mainstream, far more radical therapies have begun to compete for scientific respectability.

Regenerative or stem cell medicine is the big player here. Recently, the man who has been called the father of regenerative medicine gave a talk at an important stem cell conference in which he revealed discoveries regarding induced tissue regeneration (iTR). If, as the presentation indicates, we can restore pre-fetal tissue regeneration properties to adults, the process could be used to restore bodies to youthful status. Even the Hayflick Limit could fall.

I’ll have more for you about iTR in the future, but we should understand that this year also saw some of the richest and most successful people in the world dedicating themselves to accomplishing much, much longer health spans. As writer Charlotte Lytton writes, 2015 is “The Year We Decided to Live Forever.”

This new belief in the ability to solve the problems of aging, as well as the ability to fund the requisite research, is taking place in conjunction with unprecedented global economic progress. Increasing incomes and life spans will accelerate the growth of healthcare markets and the demand for biotechnologies that will extend health spans even further.

“El Jefe” John Mauldin also follows these signs, and he’s convinced that we are seeing signs of an emerging biotech bubble. I agree.

Sincerely,
Patrick Cox
Editor, Transformational Technology Alert