Being a Delta Rat

So, I was coding earlier today when I received an email from Doug Casey's International Man, which I reservedly follow.  He is good at describing the problems.  The title of the email was "Top Five Reasons Not to Vote."

The problem is political myopia induced by the enforcement of party lines and overarching political philosophies, which push out divergent, independent thought.

Fiat Currency: A Nation's Store of Wealth

Fiat currencies are a curiosity that has arisen in the last 40-50 years that has existed as a secretive matter-of-fact.  It is like the benign secret that all of the folks who created it felt was scandalous, when in reality it is a non-issue.  There are no new problems that are introduced by a fiat currency, simply new forms of the same old problems.  Problems with fiscal prudence, honest dealing, and straightforward politics are the same issues that existed before fiat currencies, but the crooked powers that be now have new ways to steal from people that they did not have available to them before.

For a brief review, fiat currencies are imaginary money issued by a government that backs up the industrious efforts of its people.  The intrinsic value backing a fiat currency is not dictated by the government, it is derived from the faith of the governed (and many times others not governed) who choose to use it.

There is another property of fiat currencies that I have been chewing on for some time that is slowly crystallizing for me.  Fiat currencies represent a store of wealth, in the form of faith and the wealth that follows it, that a country can use in lieu of debt or taxation as source of working capital.  The mechanism by which a country can use this capital is via the printing press, or really today by a central bank mainframe server into which more zeroes are simply appended to the end of a long-type value in a database somewhere.  It is literally as simple as making 1,000,000 into 1,000,000,000,000.

However, the ease of this creation of money should not be confused as a creation of wealth for the consequences of this action are severe if not carefully managed.  First, the government doesn't create wealth.  It never has, and it never will.  People create wealth and the government monetizes and uses a portion of that wealth to accomplish its tasks.  If the government prints too freely, above the wealth creation of the people of the country, then the value of the fiat currency will drop accordingly, thus lowering the relative value of the currency with respect to other nations' floating currencies.  If it is printed vastly beyond the wealth creation of the people, then you enter into hyper-inflationary territory, such as happened many times in the past in places like Wiemar Germany in the 1920s , Hungary in the 1940s, Argentina in the 1980s, Yugoslavia in the 1990s, and Zimbabwe in the 2000s.  And despite the Federal Reserve's incompetence in the past, I am glad that they are mostly allowing our currency to float upward in relative value, despite the trade penalties that are paid as a result.

U.S. Dollar Index over the past 5 years.

The fiat currency as a store of wealth can be accessed, much like a bank account for a nation state, to withdraw working capital from in times of need.  It is a good thing to let your currency float upwards and accrue wealth to store up for times of need.  So, despite all of the negative press that our strong currency is getting, I want to ensure that this message gets out.  A strong currency is not a bad thing.  In fact, I would argue strongly that it is a very positive thing, especially for countries who can produce everything they need themselves, especially food and fuel, since those are the two limitations that harm countries who have to import or export large quantities of to survive.  This is a stark contrasting view from Trump who views currency devaluation as a "smart" thing to do.  Sure, it is smart until you need to print money to actually mitigate an existential economic crisis.  If you devalue your currency during stable times, you invite hyper-inflation in the event of a real crisis.

However, this is not to say that the U.S. is on good footing.  As some of the economists that I follow have said, "The U.S. is the least ugly girl at the dance."  We are still ugly, but less so than most other nations in the world.  Since all fiat currencies are ultimately imaginary, it is difficult to measure it's true intrinsic value.  However, if one considers gold, a metal that possesses every property necessary to be used as a substitute for money, you can get a feel for the value of the U.S. dollar against something more permanent.  And although the dollar value of gold has been declining over the past 5 years, it took place before the significant rise in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, meaning that the dollar was accruing real value in 2013, while the 2015 exchange rate change is merely a worsening of every one else in the DXY currency basket.

Gold Price in U.S. dollars over 5 years.

This chart is especially significant since many other nations were buying up gold in copious quantities in 2013, most notably Russia and China, so a drop in the price of gold in the face of extreme demand accentuates the potency of this point.

Ultimately, though, the increase in the value of the dollar means that you, dear reader, get a stealth raise as your U.S. dollar-denominated salaries and bank accounts buy more than they did in 2012, although I am sure you already noted this at the gas pump.  I, for one, hope that the Federal Reserve stays out of the way and allows the U.S. dollar to continue to accrue value, as I expect will happen given all of the various crises around the world.  The U.S. is seen as a financial safe haven, despite all of our very serious fiscal and debt problems.

A Compact Guide to Biblical Values

This is the most direct, compact, and insightful image I have seen in a long time.  It is well worth saving here:

Police Brutality in America

This is the kind of shit that is happening right now in America.  Police are killing and raping people with no repercussions.  This kind of behavior is abominable and deplorable and shows how sick our society is today.

Don't be part of this sickness.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/1/19/sexual-violence-the-brutality-that-police-chiefs-ignore.html

Peruse News Around the World: Oddities of Today

So, I was perusing the world news today when two article titles caught my attention.  Both are absurd, just in different directions.

First, apparently Kim Jong Un and his North Korean crazies have managed to produce "hangover-less" booze.  To my knowledge, this is not possible, but it would certainly put North Korea on the economic map if they actually succeeded.  It might even rescue them from destitution assuming they could get trade sanctions lifted, lol.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/18/north-korea-invents-hangover-free-alcohol
http://fortune.com/2016/01/20/north-korea-hangover-free-alcohol/

The next article is more political correct nonsense... "Whiteness History Month".

Look... I appreciate that you are trying to be fair and whatever, but seriously... quit with the PC insanity.  I don't like Black History Month or Asian History Month or White History Month... just stop.  This kind of absurdity only breeds contempt and hate.

We are all human beings.  We all eat, sleep, and poop; so get over it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2016/01/20/why-one-oregon-college-is-planning-a-whiteness-history-month/

Age of Aging

I received a new article from Patrick Cox of Mauldin Economics regarding the 2015 advancements in anti-aging technology that is slowly blossoming.

This article covers two primary drugs that have been around for a while but were never tested for the specific purpose of slowing down cellular aging.  These two drugs alone have the pontential -- at least based on current testing already completed -- to increase human lifespans by 10-15%.  It would be curious to do a statistical study of people who have taken the drug metformin for diabetes and see if they possess any measurable differences in cellular degeneration.

And I am sure that these drugs are only the vanguard of what may materialize as science advances to testing and marketing.  By some estimates, I am slated to live to 120 healthfully and 150 to 180 before I die.  That is curious to consider and something that I will keep chewing on.

There are plenty of dismal things that I have read and always keep in mind, but I want to share interesting or hopeful things also.

The article is here, or I have a copy of it transcribed below.  The online copy has all of the charts and images though, so hit that up first.

Distant Worlds: Universe

I am writing a brief review of this game because it is on sale now for a reasonable price of 30USD.

I bought it for 60USD, because I am a strategy buff and a game developer, but for most players it is not worth it at 60.  However, for 30, I would recommend it to anyone who casually enjoys strategy games.

The most interesting features of this game are the economic complexity, chiefly in breaking it down to specific materials, which adds a lot of management potential.  Fortunately, the Codeforce guys saw this and created a full spectrum, scalable AI to manage parts of the game for you.  If you wanted to you can put your empire on full AI and watch the game play itself, but usually I manage the research, colonization, diplomacy, and war parts.

It is this scalable AI idea that was my main takeaway from this game, as a developer, and one that we will be seeking to emulate in our game.

Either way, well worth checking out if you like strategy games.

It is on sale until January 10, 2016.
http://www.matrixgames.com/products/515/details/Distant.Worlds.-.Universe

Lions and Tigers and barbaric ISIS savages, Oh my!

I am going to apologize to readers of this, as I am going to ramble a bit.  I am a systemic thinker and look at this through many different lenses at once.

Genetic Superiority: Fact or Myth?

So, I am in the middle of this debate with two friends of mine regarding genetics and the rise of great cultures.  They are arguing that genetics, and specifically, genetic superiority trumps all other factors when determining the rise of great cultures.  My argument is that genetic variation, which is random(ish), out-weighs the necessarily positive genetic developments for their argument to hold true, and thus that cultural traits such as peaceful religion/strong morality, prudent economic decisions (as a culture), and strong family/social structure is far more determinant of a great culture than genetics.  Obviously, genetics plays a role, but in my narrative this role is reduced to random variations amongst individuals rather than a dominating factor in a civilization's success.

However... this article seems to disagree with me.
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2010/08/1-in-200-men-direct-descendants-of-genghis-khan/#.Vk8RQXarTRZ

What say you?

Brexit: Consequences Untold

I found another very informative article regarding the prospect of Britain leaving the European Union (EU).  As anyone who reads me regularly knows that I am not optimistic about the survival of the EU, especially the European Monetary Union (EMU), simply because the economic forces against it are too strong to overcome without significant federalization into a true united states of Europe, which I don't see happening given the current political environment.

Russia and Syria

I found a curious article on the Huffington Post that was translated from Arabic detailing Russia and their role in the Syrian mess.  There is an additional layer that this author seems to overlook, which is the pipeline potential for a submissive, dependent but stable Syrian regime.  Given Putin's history pushing for control of oil and natural gas supplies, this would seem to be the most likely motivation for his interest in Syria.  This goal is not going to disappear overnight either, which means that Russia is in Syria for the long haul.

The article itself though describes some of the interplay of politics in the Middle East and some of the favors and tradeoffs that Russia had to make in order to facilitate their Syrian intervention.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida-dergham/moscow-needs-an-exit-stra_b_8494762.html

Distributive vs Creative Industry: Sins of the Financial Industry & Answers

"Successful societies maximise the creative and minimise the distributive. Societies where everyone can achieve gains only at the expense of others are by definition impoverished. They are also usually intensely violent."       -- Roger Bootle

I found this blog article from Bill Mitchell, which references another article by Roger Bootle.

The Mitchell article is a bit dense economically, but Mitchell talks extensively about the financial industry and how it interacts with the broader economy and how the unfettered access to the broader economy allows greed to disease the entire system.  This is a distributive process allowed by the lack of effective regulation limiting the access of the usually inherently distributive finance industry to the broader real economy.

This firewall used to exist.  It had a name.  The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.


BANKING ISSUES:

This law existed to prevent banks from investing in speculative (and therefore risky) investments with depositors' (your) money.  Allowing commercial banks to engage in dangerous behavior and leaving loan-making rules too loose allowing them to make broad-based bad loans to people, businesses, or governments who cannot repay is a recipe for the destruction of society.  And God forbid if the government forces them to make bad loans for socialist reasons.  That is utterly unacceptable.

Commercial banks exist to receive deposits of consumers and businesses and to ensure availability of this liquid currency to their respective consumers at any time.  Investment banks are to be distinctly and completely separate entities where consumers are fully warned ahead of investing money in them of the risks involved.  Commercial banks include organizations like Wells Fargo, Citi, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, etc.  Investment banks are organizations like CharlesSchwab, TDAmeritrade, any venture capital organizations, etc. where no availability of liquidity or loan repayment is guaranteed.  The activities of commercial banks must be very carefully regulated and they must be prohibited from engaging in any kind of highly risky investment, including making loans to bad consumers.

I find it amusing the Bernanke finds the resurgence of interest in the Glass-Steagall Act "puzzling".  Especially, considering that his policies provoked the greatest unbalancing of economic investment across the board for all of history.  Mr. Bernanke lives in a theoretical world that has little, if any, relevance in the real world.

But back to the topic at hand, distributive versus creative activities in economics.

Any future iteration of the Glass-Steagall Act needs to have a quantitative manner to identifying "distributive" investments versus "creative" (or productive, as I have said many times in the past) investments and explicitly prohibit any distributive activities from commercial banks.  Every single job, every activity of all employees in the commercial banking industry needs to have a quantitatively describable "productivity score" that takes into account all debits and credits across not only the given bank's balance sheet, but all of their customer individuals, businesses, and corporations to create a composite productivity score for each asset on their balance sheet (there should never be any off-balance sheet assets allowed, ever, under any circumstances that I can see).

This way the health of their balance sheet, every asset and activity, can be objectively judged based on a "productivity score", publicly and objectively determined, determined by how many of their loans are actually producing real benefits to society.  Real benefits to society being measured by the creation of something that did not exist before or the funding of such an endeavor by a client or client business.  The object, idea, process, method, knowledge, etc goal to be created must be clearly stated, publicly distributed and plainly made known when a loan is made by a commercial bank.

This will place responsibility both on the bank AND the customer to ensure that they are acting in the best interests of society as a whole.


SOCIAL BACKSTOP ISSUES:

My complaint during the 2007-2008 crisis was the bank bailouts.  The FDIC exists to insure DEPOSITORS, NOT banking corporations.  The FDIC should have direct links between the banks and themselves detailing every deposit account, what balance is maintained in it, and who it belongs to.  When the bank fails, the FDIC needs to provide creditor of last resort services (powered by the Fed & Treasury) to provide an account for the consumer/business by simply handing printed money to the bank of the consumer's choice.  This will not produce inflation because the fractional reserve banking system operates on imaginary money that doesn't exist anyway, so printing money up to the depositor's balance is merely realizing the imaginary money for the consumer allowing them to tell the FDIC which bank that is still standing to deposit the money into.  Structuring the FDIC as such would eliminate the need to any kind of insurance payments by the banks to the FDIC, except perhaps what is required to pay for operations at the FDIC and minimize bank expenses related to FDIC access.

This will ensure that bad banks fail and better managed banks are recapitalized automatically as consumers direct their existing funds retained at the FDIC to another bank.

Currently, the FDIC is broken.  They plan on sticking consumers, the very sector they exist to protect, with the costs of bank failures which is unacceptable.  In their 2012 paper Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important, Financial Institutions or G-SIFI, they lay out the plan for sticking "unsecured creditors" (that would be you, dear reader) with the failures of bank management by way of issuing bank stock to the unsecured creditors which will be promptly fire sold at severe losses to the unsecured creditors.


BANKING CRIMINALITY:

I was emailed this post regarding banks laundering money for drug cartels.  If you bank at Bank of America or Citibank, I would pull all of my deposits out of their bank and move to somewhere else... Wells Fargo if you insist on a big bank or a local bank or perhaps credit union.  The moral fiber of some of these big banks is very nearly non-existent.  Let alone being concerned about their loans-to-deposits ratio, which is a sign of how stable a bank is financially (Note: higher is better).


WHAT CAN YOU DO?

Pull your money out of unstable banks, which will tilt their LtD back in a more stable direction, and hopefully increase the overall system stability, barring catastrophic events like currency collapse.

Find a foreign bank to deposit into.  Which is where buying the book "Going Global 2015" comes in handy.

Demand that the U.S. debt limit not be expanded.  Expanding the debt load on our nation is not helpful and will result in a full fledged currency collapse if not managed.

Buy gold.  Physical gold, not GLD or any of those ETFs that do not hold 100% of the gold to back their contracts. And probably a gun.  These are all to hedge against a possible currency collapse which is looking more likely with the continued mismanagement of the fiscal government budget.

Demand a shift in legislation away from distributive policies (Obamacare comes to mind) and for creative or productive policies.